1. Current World Oil Reserves - Estimates
ENERGY UPDATE – MAY 5, 2007
An important update is from the Energy Bulletin on 4/25/2007 by Mr. Byron King, pertaining to Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, retired “senior energy expert” of National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) in Tehran, Iran. Dr. Bakhtiari was attached to the director’s office in the Corporate Planning Directorate of NIOC, including various important positions of immense trust and responsibilities and specializing in issues related to the global oil, gas, and petrochemical industries from 1971 through 2005, with 34 years of service.
Dr. Bakhtiari’s conclusion was presented to the Italian conference in March, 2007, was that “the peak of global oil production has been reached.” Dr. Bakhtiari’s World Oil Production Capacity model now sees the world entering a phase of irreversible decline in daily oil output, moving down from the current 82 mb/d toward daily oil extraction of only 55 mb/d, a 32% drop in 14 years, or by the year 2020. “I cannot foresee any other event coming to eclipse Peak Oil, not even the world wars which might be unleashed in the Peak’s aftermath and further fueled by widespread resource scarcity. Unless, of course, humanity decides upon collective suicide with the massive use of weapons of mass destruction; but such an annihilating event would spell the world “end” for most, if not all, of mankind.”
According to Dr. Bakhtiari: “Thus, at present, the global masses seem totally unprepared for the two shocks which will inevitably occur in “Post Peak.” On the one hand, no major institution or medium is willing to inform them seriously on the not-so-palatable consequences of “Post Peak”; and, on the other hand, specialized institutions (such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and OPEC) as well as some major energy consultancies (e.g., the Cambridge Energy Research Associates and the Edinburgh-based Wood Mackenzie research outfit) will go on denying “Peak Oil” by issuing rosy future oil output predictions.
“So that the twin shocks are now inevitable on a global scale, as there is no time left to prepare public opinion for “Post Peak” sequels. The shocks will first surprise, then tilt, and finally entangle swaths of people worldwide. Those better prepared will be less inclined to react in a disorderly way and panic when the shocking truth will be unveiled.”
“In the large majority of countries, no one has prepared (or wanted to prepare) the general public to the historical “Peak Oil” event and to its momentous consequence in their daily lives. Thus, most probably, the popular masses will be directly exposed to two main types of shock: A material shock and also a psychological shock.”
Mr. Tim Lajoie reports for The New Hampshire on 4/27/2007 from a lecture given by Mr. Matthew Simmons, an investment advisor to the oil industry for approx. 38 years, and has been a key advisor to the Bush administration, as a part of Vice President Dick Cheney’s Energy Task Force.
Mr. Simmons states that peak oil is the most important problem the world faces today. “We have been living for 50 years in an energy dream,” said Simmons. “The world faces a real crisis.” “Two-thirds of the world’s oil producers are in decline,” he said. “Many alternative energy sources are energy intensive,” he said. “Corn-based energy is a scam; it’s very energy-intensive.” Simmons also pointed out that nuclear power plants must run for 15 years before they can produce enough energy to replace the energy used to build the plant itself. “New supply sources are important, but they cannot fill the energy gap.” Simmons added.
Simmons partially blames the oil industry for the energy crisis resulting from peak oil. The oil industry, he said, was run with an attitude that the oil in the Middle East would last forever. The oil industry also believed that oil would be cheap forever. In reality, peaking was a surprise to most oil firms, as there was little to no data on the issue. “Peaking does not mean running out,” said Simmons. “But it does mean supply will begin to drop.” First and foremost, Simmons believes that if the peak oil issue is not addressed, the world could descend into chaos with the “bullies” hoarding resources. “I can tell you right now that’s how wars get started,” Simmons said. On 1/7/2007, Mr. Simmons conducted an oil and energy lecture at the University of California – Santa Barbara (UCSB). The conclusion was that an emergency energy program is required similar to the “Manhattan” atomic research project. Mr. Simmons further stated that all organizations, industries and countries have to participate in order to forestall the collapse of the world economy. Simmons warned that other alternative energies may not be as they appear.
My additional comments are worthwhile comprehension. There are many other factors that can effect and accelerate “Peak Oil” conditions, such as limiting oil production and oil exports or imports, manipulating the various natural resource industries, deliberate material shortages, deliberate energy shortages such as Enron in California, hurricanes, price gouging, price fixing, banking practices, foreclosures, corporate takeovers, bankruptcies, planned stock market manipulations, controlling national & international market share, recessions, tariffs, import restrictions, capital outflow, foreign bond sales, foreign investments, and domestic and foreign political instabilities. All this, including the convergence of Global Warming, Climate Change, Droughts, Air Pollution, Ozone Depletion, Iraq-Iran, Mid-East and all foreign oil imports, and foreign trade, liquidation of investments, a devalued dollar and more war and defense spending ($600-$650 billion annually), and World Population will impact upon “Peak Oil” and our oil/gasoline supplies. In our existing capitalist system of maximizing profits, great financial pressures are generated to force many oil companies and energy related businesses out of business, which have multiple effects upon the entire worldwide economy, including the rising costs of all consumer products and food supply. This is elementary, but the problem always remains that the government only will cater to the corporations and their benefactors, such as providing annually $30 billion in subsidies to the oil companies, and any solutions from “outsiders,” no matter how dire the national energy crisis, our government will either ignore or otherwise steal any technology, particularly when realizing that oil availability is short lived, and we, the USA, are not able to control the world economy for any length of time in the future. Our massive debt burden and war reparations for Afghanistan and Iraq will haunt us for many years, and by having to pay for the cleanup of the 3,000 tons of spent uranium in those countries.
Unfortunately, time has run out for a soft landing of converting to hydrogen and hydrogen regeneration development. The large corporations, being mostly motivated by high profits, are too cheap to hire professionals or real scientists, and are not expected to produce any meaningful energy solutions, or any worthwhile results, from past experience. The corporation’s boardrooms are filled with executives, who only care about their jobs, high profits, and retirements by any means and methods, including of breaking any laws. Most corporations are unreliable just like Halliburton and the Bechtel Corporation. In order to achieve the required success, I would need to take total responsibilities myself, provided the necessary funds are made available to cover complete proposals and future energy development plans for converting to hydrogen and hydrogen regeneration with full approval by our government. If our government with a “Coalition of the Willing,” can go to war in Iraq at public expense of hundreds of billions of dollars for our oil companies, and for foreign oil companies, then this government can fund my proposals and research for hydrogen and hydrogen regeneration, including my other energy and environmental solutions to address global warming, climate change, droughts, ozone depletion and peak oil.
Immediately after the 2000 presidential election, Condoleezaa Rice was on a TV Talkshow and stated that the Bush administration needed all the money they could get their hands on, in order to fight an impending threat from the Mid-East. As I can recall, in the prelude to the Iraq invasion, Saddam Hussein offered to sell all the oil we could use in the USA, but President Bush instead proceeded with the invasion not only to get the Iraq oil for nothing, but with plans to control all Mid-East oil to dominate the world economy. At the time of the invasion and occupation, President Bush promised the American People on TV that our military will be withdrawn from Iraq in 100 days.
Since January 2007, President Bush and our government approved the “SURGE” deployment into Iraq, now amounting to over 28,000 soldiers. Large oil fields have been found in Western Iraq. British and American Energy Consultants claim that Iraq may possess an additional 100 billion barrels of oil. If confirmed, the combined total would result to 216 billion barrels of oil for Iraq. Any new undeveloped oil fields are to be exempt from fees or revenues to Iraq, and our government wants to pay approx. 14% to 30% in revenues or taxes only from existing and producing oil fields in Iraq. This is too little, too late. Previously, our government illegally confiscated and sold the Iraqi industries to US and foreign companies and corporations. This does explain why the Iraqi people continue to fight against our occupation of Iraq to protect their jobs, their livelihood, and fight for their rightful property and ownership of their natural resources. This is very simple to understand.
All industrialized countries are scrambling to find any renewable energy sources such as wind or ocean waves, which can only produce electricity, provided that the winds and ocean waves can produce electricity 24-hours every day, all year long. Obviously, wind, tidal and ocean wave power are inadequate and are not a replacement or a substitute for oil. I have experienced many days when no wind or ocean waves existed on the Pacific Coast. Climate change and the warming of the oceans may change and effect global wind currents. Furthermore, any storage of electricity is energy intensive and very costly.
Unverified proved World Oil Reserves are estimated at 1.29 trillion barrels of oil with “reasonable certainty.” In view of existing conditions, constraints, and huge investments for limited oil reserves, how much oil is actually recoverable and marketable to sustain our present economy and future population growth for only the next 30-40 years? Annual world population growth amounts to 1.14% or 75 million per year to 6.5 billion people in 2006. World population estimates for the year 2010 are 6.8 billion people; for the year 2020 are 7.7 billion people; year 2030 are 8.2 billion people; year 2040 are 8.8 billion people, and for year 2050 are 9.2 billion people. Inevitable, population growth combined with the other convergent problems, major efforts and changes are necessary and overdue to maintain our present standard of living and prosperity.
* * *
The International Energy Agency and United Nations have previously published over 10 years ago oil resource data and estimates of recoverable and probable unverified world oil reserves. The data included probable recoverable oil shale and tar sands. The availability of oil supplies was then estimated to last for 45 years. The consumption of oil has drastically increased beyond the estimates by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations, because in part of the unexpected rise in industrialization of India and China and overall increases in world population, and the Opec countries oil export quotas were parceled out according to their estimated reserves, but then their oil reserves were grossly inflated in order to export more oil. Opec’s actual oil reserves are estimated, but factual figures are unknown. According to the International Energy Agency, 33 of 48 biggest oil-producing countries have passed their peak. All super-giant fields in the world are in decline.
Saudi Arabia refuses to release details about each oil reservoir, and does not permit audits by outsiders. Mr. Nansen Husseini, ex-senior Aramco official states: “If demand and depletion patterns continue, every year the world will need to open enough fields or wells to pump an additional 6 million to 8 million barrels a day to meet the rising demand and at least 4 million to compensate for the declining production of existing fields. That’s like a whole new Saudi Arabia every couple of years, Husseini said. When a crisis comes in a year or two or 10 – it will be all the more painful because we have done little or nothing to prepare for it.”
Exxon-Mobil stated “due to depletion, it will be necessary to replace 80% of current production with new fields by 2015.” This would be the equivalent of 4 times the Saudi Arabia oil deposits just for the next 11 years. ExxonMobil documents that global oil discoveries peaked in 1964. Declining rates of discovery are therefore a long-established trend. ExxonMobil Corp. forecasts global energy demand will rise 50% by 2030 and oil will remain the dominant fuel source. Exxon estimates global conventional oil reserves amount to 3.2 trillion barrels and nonconventional resources boosts the amount to 4 trillion, leaving more than 2 trillion barrels of conventional resources still to be produced, Exxon said. On 12/14/2005, ExxonMobil says world will need 60% more energy in 25 years. The planet’s remaining crude-oil resource base - approx. 2.2 trillion barrels, excluding non-conventional oil, can support that growth, Mr. Spelling said. The Middle East and Russia hold most of the remaining reserves, he said. Chevron notes in recent advertisements that 33 of 48 nations are in decline. We have seen the peaking of production in a majority of individual nations, including some important producers such Indonesia, Norway, Great Britain, and Venezuela. Exxon Mobil Sr. V.P. Stuart McGill said on 2/7/2006: “No combination of conservation measures, alternative energy sources and technological advances could realistically and economically provide a way to completely replace those imports in the short or medium term.”
The National Geological Survey had claimed that the world oil reserves amount to 1 to 3 Trillion barrels of oil and would last between approx. 32 years to 98 years. World Oil Production stated that oil reserves amount to 1.032 trillion in 2002, but new estimates are 1.08 trillion barrels of oil, it looks like planet Earth has oil for about 10,000 days, i.e. about 27 years. If consumption increases an average of 5% year, then we have oil for about 15 years. But the US Geological Survey estimates that amount of oil that is still to be found at about 3 trillion, three times the oil reserves known today. World oil supplies are estimated to be 2 trillion barrels by international bodies, and half is already consumed, leaving approx. 1 trillion barrels, or 37 years of oil supply to the year 2041. These figures and estimates show that many variables exist, and it is difficult to come up with actual global oil reserves. The major oil companies have falsified their oil reserves before.
The world was consuming 30 billion barrels of oil last year, and demand is climbing by 1.8%, that means if we are at “peak oil,” or at the “break-even point” of production vs. demand, then we need to find and produce an additional 30 billion barrels of oil every year, plus 1.8% or 540 million barrels for additional demand every year. Present estimates of supply and sustained oil production are expected to remain the same for only 2-3 years. The world oil demand now has been upgraded to 2.1% or 630 million barrels, and current depletion is 2% a year. According to information, the World conventional oil has peaked in 2005, all hydrocarbons will peak in 2010, gas will peak in 2020, and uranium will be depleted in approximately 2025. In 2004 the world produced 30.5 billion barrels of oil but discovered only 7.5 billion barrels of new oil.
Finally the major oil companies are providing data. During the Biennial New Zealand Petroleum Conference in early March, 2006, world car production demands are estimated to increase from 750 million today to 1.660 billion in 25 years or by 2031. Demand for oil will increase from 84.9 million barrels today to 138 million barrels per day by 2030.
The many individuals who have shown an honest concern about peak oil and diminishing fossil fuels, only show their concern for our standard of living, employment, food supply, economy, and in short our survival and the survival of future generations for the United States of America and the rest of the world. The US is part of the world, and our economic survival depends very much upon the rest of the world at this point in time. Our government, companies and corporations should be thankful for the efforts of concerned fossil fuel depletion activists, who actually provide a great service toward the survivability for all of us. The real issue here is that the government, oil industry and their experts are being asked and forcefully confronted to provide answers toward this country’s energy and our future survivability. This is only a fair and rightful demand on behalf of all citizens, companies, corporations and countries. The only concern businessses and corporations should have is that all companies and corporations are operating in a fair and ethical manner because our livelihood and everyone’s existence is at stake.
Mr. Oliver L. Campbell’s article pertaining to “Certification of Oil Reserves in the Orinoco Belt” in Venezuela is truly excellent. Everybody needs to know what problems we face now and in the future, and how we can manage to overcome these problems. Our lives and economy are presently directly linked to the availability of fossil fuel and nuclear power. If these energy resources become scarce or too costly to produce and market, then alternative energy sources need to be developed to take their place.
The oil companies and their many investors are used to making huge profits. Hugo Chavez just disclosed that the problem is inflated oil prices by the oil companies by as much as ten (10) times. Senator Harry Reid stated on 4/21/2006 that Exxon-Mobil is making a $2 profit per gallon of gasoline when average prices were at $2.79. When the time comes that these investors and profits diminish due to scarcity of oil and higher exploration costs, then oil companies will be going out of business, while the foreign oil suppliers are restricting foreign investors into their oil reserves, and oil exporting countries want to control their natural resources. This is already happening, and will continue to happen on a much larger scale, and will include nationalization of all natural resources. How much oil is available for US consumption for the next 20-40+ years?
It would be a mistake to play a guessing game or to gamble on unverifiable energy deposits. It would be painful to wake up in 5 or 10 years from now and find out that oil prices have risen to $150 to $200 per barrel, or the price of gasoline costs $8 to $12 per gallon, or more. The oil companies are now buying back their stock instead of investing into exploration with anticipation of making higher profits by withholding gasoline supplies from the market. We are now paying over $250 billion annually for imported oil. Can we afford to pay over $700 billion annually for imported oil? If we continue to sleepwalk, then obviously we are heading for a troubled future. Some estimates state that total world oil reserves may amount to 1.08 Trillion barrels of oil, but the question is what amount is actually producible and marketable. What would happen when within 10 years a hurricane would blast through Florida and moves directly westward and wipes out 50% of the offshore oilrigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico similar to Hurricane Katrina?
Americans and oil companies are known to be big gamblers. The question is, should we demand honest facts about our economy and actual energy facts, or should the people of the United States leave their lives in the hands of oil companies and rely on unreliable promises of foreign (Opec) countries, since they themselves do not know how much oil they have. The American People have grave doubts about our government’s truthfulness. The looming worldwide energy crisis can be laid directly at the feet of our government and previous US administrations for aiming to control all world energy resources.
Bio-fuel (ethanol) is being touted as a renewable and major alternative to oil. The bio-fuel produced from plants and organic material has a limited life cycle too. When the soil is used for several years in the row to produce the same crops, then the nutrients (fats & oil) are leached out, and the soil becomes unusable and depleted. How many years will bio-fuel last? Unfortunately, people are being fed a regular diet of false information all the time, such as electric cars, fuel cells, bio-fuel, wind power, solar, nuclear power, etc. All of these combined energy sources are not adequate to sustain our present industrial and economic existence with continued population growth. The total amount of oil consumption is expected to increase by another 50% in 25 years, and any natural gas deposits are not adequate to make up for the shortfall of depletion.
Coal and tar sands exist in substantial quantities, and coal can be utilized to produce electricity, and the tar sands are most useful for plastics, etc., but the appropriate air pollution control concepts and methods need to be developed and utilized. The US Geological Survey years ago stated that we have 1.7 trillion tons of verified coal with a potential of 4 trillion tons. About 473 billion tons of verified reserves are considered economically mineable. So from the 1.7 trillion tons of verified coal only 473 billion tons are economically mineable? Estimated current supplies of uranium will only last for another 20 to 25 years.
The energy problem is very complex, since the USA depends on diminishing oil and natural gas from other countries for our livelihood and standard of living. Oil and natural gas is extensively used throughout our entire economy, and has become a part of our daily life. The article by Mr. Byron W. King dated Jan. 26, 2006 titled “Things Just Got Worse” pertains to the alarming and diminishing oil reserves in Kuwait. The entire article requires our comprehension. Out of the previously claimed 99 billion barrels of oil, Kuwait now has only approx. 40 billion barrels of estimated oil reserves. Verified oil reserves are supposed to be approximately 24 billion barrels of oil. Accurate surveying and verifiable exploration data is required from Opec.
According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy “…we can reasonably conclude that the claim that there are still 1.1 trillion barrels of oil reserves remaining is simply false, a figure off by 300 billion barrels even if we do not also adjust the figure to factor in consumption for the past 17 years.”
Chevron recently stated: “Unfortunately, as already noted, it will be foolish to assume there is 1 trillion barrels of oil remaining.”
If the oil companies are allowed to bleed the world out of money until virtually all the oil and energy is exhausted, and until the world economy is bankrupt, then it is too late, and the world has difficulty of recovery or to supply adequate amounts of food. The oil industry should not be allowed to control all energy technology or to subvert the development of alternative energy technology. This would amount to economic suppression, and servitude. Good old American technology cannot save this country, when all technology is being controlled and exploited by these kleptocrats and our government. This is not a rosy future and will produce much violence that will affect our lives and the entire US as well.
An article on 4/21/2006 states: “The administration has declared an “Advanced Energy Initiative” which throws a few million dollars at a problem that will require trillions.”
On May 2, 2006 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies forum, former US Energy Sec. James Schlesinger moderated the forum, and present Sec. of Energy Samuel W. Bodman, and the petroleum and minerals minister of Saudi Arabia Ali Ibrahim al-Naimi, and top energy officials attended. Mr. James Schlesinger asked the officials for their views of concerns that the world is approaching an oil production peak, Naimi replied, “I believe there are at least 14 trillion barrels of reserves left, 7 trillion of which are conventional. With advancing technology, we’ll produce more of it.” Mr. Bodman said: “Eventually, we’ll run out of it. We had peak oil production in the US in 1970, and it’s been declining ever since.”
My response would be why is Saudi Arabia cutting back on production, when there are supposed to be 7 trillion barrels of conventional oil available somewhere, and why is Saudi Arabia not exploring and drilling more wells to satisfy the demands of the USA, South America, their neighbors in Africa, and Asia, or to reduce the plight within Saudi Arabia, that is reaching a state of near revolution. If the industrialized countries cannot obtain seismic exploration details and verifiable new oil field results, then such statements are meaningless by Mr. Naimi, “I believe there are at least 14 trillion barrels of reserves left, 7 trillion of which are conventional. With advancing technology, we’ll produce more of it.” It just happened to be that the Saudi oil production declined from 1980 to now by almost 1 million barrels a day. Such a statement is simply inadequate and not reliable without specifics. Perhaps Mr. al-Naimi could be so kind as to inform the 64 of 100 oil producing countries who’s oil reserves are officially in decline, as to where all that oil is, and as Saudi Arabia evidently is not interested in its own economic expansion. I am certain that the USA, China, Britain, Norway, Germany, France, Japan, and India’s oil companies would be extremely interested to drill and market all that oil too. The many geo-physicists, geologists, and computer programmers would be more than interested to find these oil deposits and verify the beliefs of Mr. al-Naimi. It appears that the Center for Strategic and International Studies forum did not produce specific energy data.
A number of articles declare that the capitalist system is coming to an end, that it is too late to develop any alternatives, and a major catastrophic worldwide economic collapse is imminent with further population growth. What needs to be determined is what technology, processes, methods and developments will be a substitute to oil, and only the best technologies should be funded, because the energy crisis has arrived in unprecedented worldwide proportions, and any inferior technology/products only produce limited results. By diluting the expected and needed economic benefits, little progress will be made in the USA. This has happened before when inferior air pollution control devices were marketed at high costs, resulting in low reductions in air pollution.
Some misleading information state that more than 3 trillion barrels of oil still exists, and there is no “Peak Oil” for at least a whole generation. My oil calculations in the 1960’s were based on figures from the US Geological Survey (USGS). Oil consumption plus annual real economic growth (or population growth) at current consumption rates will show approx. the required demand needed in 10 years or 20 years from now. The USA population is expected to grow by 45 million in 15 years.
The Oil Industry states that investments are down, drilling is down, experienced workers are not available anymore, additional drilling rigs are not available, additional refineries are required. The arctic regions of Russia and Canada should contain some large oil fields, but if the oil companies are not doing the (seismic/electronic) oil surveying and exploration, then we certainly will have economic problems, and the only alternative is hydrogen obtained from ocean water and hydrogen regeneration. All other alternatives combined are not adequate to replace the needed future energy demands to sustain our standard of living. The guessing of probable oil reserves is not acceptable. If the oil industry does not fulfill the public or economic demands of the world, - then they will be replaced, or should be replaced. World oil should be conserved, and within a relatively short time, oil will become too expensive for ordinary automobile transportation anyway. We in the USA are paying $250 billion for imported oil annually, but I doubt that we can afford to pay over $700 billion annually. Approximately half of the world population still lives in poverty and have little access to electricity and energy. Of the 6 billion world population, only 2 billion have regular employment and earn a living. Fossil fuel, oil and energy is a global problem, and this is a time to address our survivability with long range planning and decisions beyond 20 years into the future. The only reason the US has managed to consume large amounts of oil is because our oil reserves were supplemented with imported oil, and the US oil industry reportedly peaked in about 1970. It is more important to invest into hydrogen energy, than to waste our money and resources into useless global oil wars and energy/economic wars. Hydrogen would produce energy independence for most countries and would not produce any air pollution and environmental problems.
US Dept. of Energy Plans - 1977
Please click image to enlarge
Whatever we can do to make energy affordable on a global scale, such efforts will also preserve our freedom, democracy and improve our standard of living. This should be our agenda, and all of us in the US are asked to participate in these efforts. This is the American way. The existing and future global situation requires that only the best concepts and products should be adequately funded by our government, and likewise by foreign countries. The USA should take the lead and guide the rest of the world in a cooperative global energy effort and peaceful economic development.
Remember the huge forests of this country – they are almost gone; remember the tropical forests - they are almost gone; remember the steel industry – its all gone; remember the auto industry - its almost gone; remember the electronics industry – its almost gone; remember the oil industry - its almost gone; remember when people had good paying jobs – they are almost gone; this country had the highest standard of living in the world – its almost gone; remember freedom, peace and democracy – its almost gone; remember the constitution & supreme court – its just gone; remember the light at the end of the tunnel? Where is it? When all else fails, then it is Armageddon, nuclear war and the Rapture. What has this country come to? The USA is indeed enthralled with Armageddon, nuclear war, never-ending war, world domination, and the Rapture! Success at last !!! Obviously we can and have to do much better, and the time is running out.
Many people have shown little or no interest in important matters and leave everything in the hands of Jesus or God, because they are made to believe that they are helpless and are lowly (rotten) sinners. Unfortunately many people really believe that Jesus and God will save us. If that were the case, - then the world should never have gotten into this impending energy predicament in the first place, and our military would not be in Afghanistan or Iraq now. No help is on the way for the people who claim to be made in the image of our, or their God. Strangely, it is the religious fanatics who are drumming up Armageddon, nuclear war and the Rapture into the American people’s heads. Of course it would be more logical to make a little effort on our part for our survival, rather than to concentrate totally on our self-destruction and the annihilation of the human race.
Wake America, we need to take care of ourselves and make plans for our own survival, as well as for the survival of the energy dependent human race. To understand this impending energy predicament is one thing, but it requires responsible members of government and many dedicated persons to unite this country and the world to develop immediate plans and action to make any oil energy alternatives as inexpensive and abundant as possible in a calm and rational manner. If we are to survive, then we have to work together as a team without regard to any exploitive schemes, without ethnic or religious beliefs, or continuous war plans. We are all neighbors, and we are not enemies and should not become enemies. The “American Century Declaration” calls for total domination over the entire world, but it will never happen.
The focus has to be on energy and survival. This can be done for less than the $17 Trillion required for the extraction of the 1.08 Trillion barrels of remaining oil reserves that may last only 25 or 30 years. Within 5 years from now or 2010, oil-producing countries will reduce their oil exports in order to conserve and keep their precious oil for their own economic survival. While a 10% improvement in recovery of existing oil fields and old oil fields are claimed, the gain of 10% recovery is not sufficient to overcome impending production cutbacks starting within 5 years, as many world oil fields are already in serious production decline, and oil supplies are declining very soon to dangerous levels. This will cause major currency, stock market volatility and national debt problems. Oil consumption in 1970 was 42 million barrels/day and in 2005 the oil consumption was 84 million barrels/day. $2.4 trillion of investments are needed in 10 years to meet present oil shortfall, according to Goldman Sachs. The US population is expected to increase in 5 years by 15 million, by 30 million in 10 years, and 75 million in 25 years. 64 of 100 oil producing countries are in oil production decline. To dominate the Arab oil fields and in attempting to exploit or manipulate the world’s economy with foreign oil for a relatively few years is truly a foolish venture. An abundance of cheap energy and natural resources produced great prosperity in the past for the USA, and when some resources are being depleted, then we have to turn to other available resources.
There may be some good news for oil. There are large regions of the world that have not been explored like in Russia and the Arctic Ocean. Since the magnetic poles have changed approx. 5-7 times, then the layers of sediments play an important part in the exploration of oil, natural gas and coal. The duration of time between each magnetic pole change and the previous magnetic pole location and equator location, and each magnetic sediment layer thickness provides clues for additional world oil deposits, and at what depth. Sediment core samples will show magnetic pole changes and possible oil deposits, tar sands, oil shale and natural gas. These deposits obviously would be more expensive to put into production, and such oil, natural gas and coal would be subject to high profits and prices that are controlled by large corporations and oil companies. In 1963, I expected that my small jet plane in chapter 4 would be very useful for transportation in inhospitable areas for the exploration of oil and other natural resources.
The only alternative to oil and natural gas is hydrogen that is obtained from the oceans, which contain 11% hydrogen. The oceans contain enough hydrogen to provide all the future energy requirements for many hundreds of years. Fish and plant life replenish the hydrogen/oxygen in the oceans continuously. Fresh water contains 10% hydrogen.
Hydrogen is a chemical element that cannot be consumed, destroyed or used up. Therefore hydrogen is the perfect chemical element for reprocessing in a continuous closed loop with other high reaction chemical elements. Hydrogen when combined with oxygen or other chemicals produces various kinds of chemical reactions and heat intensities. Whenever high chemical reactions are produced in a closed loop circuitry, some of the produced heat or energy is siphoned off for the dissociation process to separate or reprocess the various chemical elements into their former chemical state. The reprocessed chemicals are then recycled and any make-up chemical elements are added and combined with hydrogen to produce a continuous loop chemical reaction process. It would not be necessary to obtain a complete dissociation breakdown of the chemical elements, and therefore some of those (partially contaminated) chemical elements can be discharged into waste storage containers. If and when developed, this is the most valuable energy source in existence, and is more valuable than oil. Very large amounts of hydrogen are released from the oceans and from decaying vegetation worldwide and go out into space every minute and every day.
Ozone (O3) is an unstable atmospheric gas that exists in the stratosphere and consists of a layer having a thickness of 9 miles. Ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation and reduces the earth’s heat from escaping into space.
I have requested government research and development funds for hydrogen and hydrogen regeneration for over 30 years. If the US government would have proceeded with funding my research over 30 years ago, then much economic progress and improved standard of living could have been made at a steady pace. But now, much of the benefits from hydrogen technology may never be fully harnessed, due in part of the previous and present administration’s stance for domination of world oil, and due to lost time for full development of hydrogen and the needed financial investments and resources that are required to bring hydrogen on line not only to replace oil, but to factor in population growth, future consumption and economic expansion.
I very much enjoyed doing research that are of national and international economic significance. Therefore I keep on requesting R&D funds from the government, including with this disclosure to the government and the public, while I still claim intellectual property rights in order to generate eventually maximum benefits to the public, companies and businesses. None of the disclosed information is secret, as I have continuously contacted top-level members of government, and I specifically requested NASA to provide me clearance in writing pertaining to some defense related research, if I were to contact and disclose my research to any foreign companies or corporations. NASA informed me that no national security is involved, and I am free to proceed.
Letter from Vice President Mondale 1978
Please click image to enlarge
Mr. Jeremy Leggett released an article on 1/20/2006 entitled: “What they don’t want you to know about the coming oil crisis,” is most informative and worthwhile reading.
Representative Roscoe Bartlett’s address on “PEAK OIL IN THE U.S. CONGRESS” on Feb. 8, 2006 describes “The Peaking of World Oil.” This is a most sobering account, and we are facing a time of undefutable urgency to develop alternate energy sources. Several scientists and analysts claim that it is too late to reverse the decline of oil depletion, and there is not enough time or money to bring alternative energy sources on line, and a worldwide economic catastrophe is imminent, as little or no efforts are being made to avert energy shortcomings, and the adverse effects of continued global warming are being ignored. Against these inevitable events, more military and defense spending would facilitate further erosion of needed financial allocation for alternate energy sources, and for environmental protection measures of global warming. The total defense-spending bill for 2006 is supposed to amount over $500 billion.
My Oil/Gas/Natural Resources Seismic and Electronic Exploration System was researched starting 1963. I found that the Oil Companies did not have a meaningful method to explore for oil, natural gas and other minerals at that time. Therefore I contacted our government for research funds, but as usual our government always comes up with some excuses particularly involving energy. About 3-4 years later, the Shell Oil Company disclosed a similar electronic seismic system in a magazine. From my experience, companies and corporations do things in an around-about way with many ways of deception and subterfuge to get control of valuable information, products and control of global market share.
The CEO of Total Oil Co. states, “There are not enough engineers, rigs, pipelines and drillers to increase current world output of 85 million barrels per day to 120 million, he says.” They are constrained by lack of resources, lack of people, and lack of access to the remaining reserves, which are mostly located in countries closed to them, and which do not seem in a hurry to invest themselves.
Outsourcing Defense Research
Please click image to enlarge
Large Oil Fields in Viet Nam
Please click image to enlarge
Letter from Senator Kennedy 1979
Please click image to enlarge
This letter from Senator Edward M. Kennedy on September 4, 1979 was delivered torn open as shown below. Other mail was received torn open and damaged so bad, that there was no doubt that the mail was torn open deliberately. At that time, I was already experiencing many difficulties, and efforts were made to obtain or steal my research and to intimidate and discourage me from continuing energy research and development.
Sen. Kennedy Mail Tampering 1979
Please click image to enlarge
Additional information on “Peak Oil” and World Energy is being added to the Internet in rather large amounts, and governments and some oil industry and supply companies now show some concern. The European countries and governments are much more informed and concerned about their future energy needs, but have severe difficulties to date in coping with the impending energy crisis, because no viable solutions have been presented. A logical factor is that when existing oil reserves have been depleted to a level of approx. 30%, then no oil would be available to the general public, and prices have skyrocket beyond affordability.
Goldman Sachs in 8/1999 stated: “…the great merger mania is nothing more than a scaling down of a dying industry in recognition of the fact that 90% of global conventional oil has already been found.”
C.J. Campbell at the Clausthal Technical University in Germany disclosed in December 2000: Some investment managers are telling us: “A stock market crash seems inevitable.” “It may herald the end of US economic and cultural hegemony which some people might think was not a bad thing.” “The transition to decline is a period of great tension.”
A number of persons on the energy & oil lecture circuit openly state that we are past the safety point for energy conversion, and a major economic decline is inevitable because the news media and government are protecting the oil industry and the stock market, and the members of government do not want to be responsible or accountable for bringing bad news that would cause a major stock market crash. Therefore the government and news media are now slowly admitting that there is an energy/oil crisis on the horizon that engulfs the entire Mid East and Asian countries. The dilemma is that all the oil in the Mid-East is simply inadequate for the developed countries, and we do not have the time or money to explore and bring sufficient oil onto the market to sustain the present economy. Biofuel, wind, nuclear power, coal, tar sands and oil shale are not sufficient for sustainability for any length of time. It is further claimed that it is too late for the development of hydrogen energy, because the production process, distribution, storage, marketing, and overall hydrogen conversion process on a national basis requires massive financial investments that appear beyond the USA capabilities, even if projected over an extended period of time. The expectations by consensus are that the government and industries are not sufficiently responsive, and the companies and corporations will simply abandon and close their business operations. This would not be surprising.
Already in 1988, I was very concerned that when our government refused to consider my proposals for the development of hydrogen and hydrogen regeneration, as I had proposed much earlier, that we were entering an era of major economic problems. Our foreign investments, manufacturing in foreign countries, outsourcing jobs to foreign countries, importing massive amounts of goods and products, and the closing of our businesses all contributed to our industrial and economic decline. A gradual and painless conversion from oil/natural gas/coal and nuclear power to hydrogen energy requires substantial amount of years and investments. In 1988 I believed that we already had passed the critical point for a safe and painless energy conversion period.
It would not be surprising if the oil companies and the oil producing countries magically disclose to the world of having found very large oil fields that will supply the world with over 60 years of oil. It is irresponsible to state that 7 trillion barrels of conventional oil is available without any statistics and facts, as was done on May 2, 2006 by Mr. al-Naimi, the minister of petroleum and minerals of Saudi Arabia. This would calm the investors, governments and citizens. To make such claims is simply impossible when considering the demands made by the world population that is estimated to increase by approximately by 100 million annually or to approximately 10 billion by the year 2046.
Since all fossil fuel and bio-fuel involves basically the chemical reaction of hydrogen and oxygen, therefore it would be sensible to convert to hydrogen & hydrogen regeneration. The only large source of hydrogen can be obtained from the oceans, and it should be produced as quickly as possible. The remaining fossil oil should be conserved and recycled. The future of our civilization and human existence depends on the abundance of inexpensive energy. A new world energy/natural resources policy is required that will protect all countries from unreasonable exploitation and military conflicts.
The present supposition is as usual; when no effective measures are taken by the government, then the existing conditions prevail on course. Unless effective energy measures are taken that definitely produce results, then we will see progress. Our government has complete control over the economy and all industries, and most national problems are to be blamed on the government for not responding or dealing with the problems the government is supposed to grapple effectively. If and as that is not happening, then the government regardless is still responsible for not taking care of their obligations to the citizens of the United States. Our government always finds dozens of excuses to waste tens of billions of dollars for military junk and defense waste, but refuses to invest money into worthwhile economic development projects that produce good paying jobs and generate federal taxes instead of welfare.
Approximately 20-30 countries have the financial means to avert the impending energy crisis, but the rest of the world and underdeveloped countries face substantial economic problems. In order to avoid a worldwide calamity, my hydrogen proposals should be considered so that all countries can obtain adequate and inexpensive hydrogen supplies from the oceans on a worldwide scale. It is important to forestall impending world crisis’s before they occur. The present conflicts over oil in the Mid-East, Africa and Asia become very serious and have worldwide economic repercussions. With the appropriate energy plans, it may be possible to avert these disasters with cohesive participation of every country. Hopefully, worldwide economic development can be generated, and defense/military spending can be reduced drastically when international unity is established. The overall objective is to provide hydrogen energy for all countries without exploitation, and to reduce future wars. In forethought, it becomes obvious that this is the best plan to solve the world energy situation and to provide maximum economic development and progress for all countries.